Temuan Riset: Tren Global Lintas-Bidang dalam Ecommerce (2024–2026)

Disiapkan sebagai input riset mentah untuk laporan dwibahasa "The Worldwide Ecommerce Landscape." Semua angka di bawah ditemukan via web_search dengan URL sumber; tidak ada yang dikarang. Tahun/versi dicatat per angka. Konflik antar sumber ditandai inline dan diringkas di Bagian 10.

Ukuran pasar / perkiraan - Social commerce digambarkan sebagai "peluang $1,2 triliun" (sumber membingkainya sebagai trajektori penjualan social commerce global, kemungkinan diturunkan-Statista; anggap estimasi tahun ~2023-2025). https://ecommercefastlane.com/the-rise-of-social-commerce-how-brands-can-capitalize-on-this-1-2-trillion-opportunity/">Ecommerce Fastlane - Vendor riset pasar mempublikasikan estimasi ukuran-pasar "social commerce" yang sangat berbeda (mis., Research and Markets, Data Bridge, Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence semua memiliki laporan 2025 dengan cakupan/angka CAGR berbeda — angka lengkap di balik paywall). Halaman indeks representatif: https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6188832/social-commerce-market-outlook-market-share">Research and Markets, https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-social-commerce-market">Data Bridge, https://straitsresearch.com/report/social-commerce-market">Straits Research, https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/social-commerce-market">Mordor Intelligence, https://www.statista.com/topics/8757/social-commerce/">Statista topic page, https://www.statista.com/study/105803/social-commerce/">Statista social commerce study. - Datapoint adopsi AS: 13% konsumen AS membeli langsung di dalam platform sosial (2025, Sprout Social Index) — dikutip di https://postplanify.com/blog/social-commerce-statistics-2026">Postplanify 2026 roundup. Lebih banyak statistik AS: https://christopholivierconsulting.com/social-commerce-statistics/">CO Consulting 38 social commerce statistics for 2026.

Dinamika platform - TikTok Shop — GMV global ~US$64B pada 2025, +94% YoY (https://www.amz123.com/t/5hqGiKqT">AMZ123; juga https://stratcom.academy/2026/06/24/tiktok-shop-hit-us64b-in-gmv-in-2025-here-is-what-that-means-for-influencer-strategy/">Stratcom Academy). GMV global H1 2025 adalah US$26,2B (https://m.amz123.com/t/rUMI8sXk">laporan H1 AMZ123). GMV US-only 2025: US$15,1B, +68% (https://m.chwang.com/news/202256571729">chwang, https://www.kdso.net/kdso/2053409/d.htm">kdso.net). TikTok Shop adalah platform ecommerce yang tumbuh paling cepat secara global pada 2025, meski laporan media Tiongkok yang bertentangan mengklaim GMV 2025 "mendekati US$100B" — lihat catatan konflik Bagian 10 (https://api3.cls.cn/share/article/2250190?os=ios&sv=218&app=stib">cls.cn, https://hk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-1258159">Investing.com HK, https://m.sohu.com/a/973427549_161795">Sohu). - Instagram / Facebook Shops — tidak ada angka revenue standalone 2025 yang muncul; platform dicakup dalam laporan pasar di atas. Lihat juga https://easyappsecom.com/guides/shopify-live-shopping-statistics-2026">Shopify Live Shopping Statistics 2026. - WeChat (Tiongkok) — dicakup dalam data social/live commerce Tiongkok (Bagian 2); tidak ada angka standalone 2025 yang ditemukan. - YouTube Shopping — tidak ada angka standalone 2025 yang ditemukan; laporan pasar (di atas) menyertakannya sebagai kanal social commerce. - Amazon Inspire — Amazon mematikan feed social shopping gaya-TikTok "Inspire" pada Februari 2025, mengalihkan investasi ke chatbot AI Rufus, bahkan saat TikTok Shop berekspansi ke pasar baru (https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/amazon-kills-inspire-its-tiktok-style-feed-for-discovering-products/">TechCrunch, 2025-02-18, https://www.modernretail.co/technology/amazon-sunsets-its-tiktok-like-feature-inspire-in-favor-of-ai-powered-chatbot-rufus/">Modern Retail, https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/news/as-tiktok-shop-expands-to-new-markets-amazon-shuts-down-inspire-social-shopping-feed/150182/">Retail TouchPoints).

2. Live Commerce

Tiongkok (pasar dominan) - Pasar live-commerce Tiongkok ~US$900B dan kini mendekati skala seluruh pasar e-commerce AS (NielsenIQ, siaran pers 2026). https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2026/chinas-900b-live-commerce-market-now-approaches-us-e-commerce-scale/">NielsenIQ, https://finbets.websol.barchart.com/?module=topNews&storyID=3333180&symbol=&selected=news">AP/Barchart - Pembagian platform (Tiongkok): Douyin menangkap 31% pangsa GMV live-commerce Tiongkok, melampaui Taobao untuk pertama kali (analisis BXTData). Catatan: angka headline BXTData "GMV exceeds 52 trillion CNY" hampir pasti typo/kesalahan skala (52 triliun CNY ≈ US$7T akan melampaui seluruh ritel Tiongkok); pembacaan yang kredibel adalah ~5+ triliun CNY (~US$700B–900B), konsisten dengan angka ~$900B NielsenIQ. Ditandai sebagai skala yang bertentangan/tidak dapat diandalkan. https://www.bxtdata.com/en/insights/9514/Live%20Commerce%20GMV%20Exceeds%2052%20Trillion%20CNY%20Douyin%2031%20Percent%20Share%20First%20Time%20Surpasses%20Taobao">BXTData

Global / pasar Barat - TikTok Shop adalah vektor utama live commerce di luar Tiongkok: GMV global US$64B pada 2025 (+94%), GMV AS US$15,1B (+68%) (sumber di Bagian 1). - Asia Tenggara: GMV live-commerce SEA dilaporkan US$17,6B (headline media industri Tiongkok "176亿美元"; framing menyarankan ini adalah kutub pertumbuhan besar) (https://www.amz123.com/t/n8NGKvOX">AMZ123). - Live-stream shopping AS tumbuh pada dinamika impulse/influencer (eMarketer, tidak ada angka dolar dalam cuplikan) (https://www.emarketer.com/content/impulse-buys-influencers-fuel-livestream-shopping-boom">eMarketer); perbandingan TikTok Shop vs Amazon Live (https://ecommerce-times.com/tiktok-shop-vs-amazon-live-in-2026-which-live-commerce-platform-wins-3/">Ecommerce Times). - Vendor riset pasar (Grand View Research, Mordor Intelligence, Research and Markets, Straits Research) semua mempublikasikan laporan pasar "live commerce / live commerce platforms" dengan angka ukuran & CAGR di balik paywall — perkirakan perbedaan besar antar-vendor dalam cakupan (platform vs GMV vs software). https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/live-commerce-market-report">Grand View Research, https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/live-commerce-platforms-market">Mordor Intelligence, https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/live-streaming-e-commerce">Research and Markets (live commerce platforms), https://straitsresearch.com/report/live-commerce-platforms-market">Straits Research, https://voxbooster.com/blog/live-shopping-statistics-2026/">VoxBooster 2026 live-shopping stats, https://christopholivierconsulting.com/live-shopping-statistics/">CO Consulting live-shopping stats, https://www.liveshopfront.com/live-commerce-trends-2026">LiveShopfront 2026 report.

3. Ecommerce Lintas-Batas

Ukuran pasar / perkiraan - Ecommerce global secara keseluruhan diperkirakan mencapai US$11,4 triliun pada 2029 (Juniper Research, siaran pers Agu 2024); total belanja digital commerce (termasuk travel, dll.) akan mencapai US$34 triliun pada 2029, +65% vs 2024 (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240826914800/en">Juniper Research / BusinessWire, https://www.juniperresearch.com/press/pressreleasesdigital-commerce-spend-to-hit-34tn-by-2029/">Juniper press, https://www.juniperresearch.com/resources/infographics/crossborder-ecommerce-market-statistic-infographic/">Juniper cross-border infographic 2023-2028). - Belanja lintas-batas kini menyumbang 55% pembelian di pasar yang disurvei (headline laporan yStats "Global B2C E-Commerce and Shopper Insights 2025-2028") (https://finbets.websol.barchart.com/?module=topNews&storyID=30661085&symbol=&selected=news">yStats via Barchart, https://www.marketresearch.com/yStats-com-GmbH-Co-KG-v3734/Global-B2C-Commerce-Shopper-Insights-39348118/">halaman laporan yStats). - Statista memelihara pelacak ecommerce lintas-batas (angka di balik paywall): https://www.statista.com/topics/1943/cross-border-e-commerce/">Statista cross-border topic, https://www.statista.com/study/85361/cross-border-e-commerce/">Statista cross-border study, https://www.statista.com/chart/36522/global-cross-border-e-commerce-market-penetration-by-company/">Statista chart: Temu's cross-border penetration by company.

Guncangan regulasi (2025–2026) — tema lintas-batas terbesar - AS: penghentian/pembatasan eksemsi de minimis untuk paket asal-Tiongkok (Mei 2025) membuat pembelian Shein/Temu jauh lebih mahal bagi konsumen AS (https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-charges-de-minimis-trump-tariff-2025-5">Business Insider, Mei 2025). - EU: EU mengenakan biaya penanganan €3 (~$4,40) pada paket ecommerce murah, menghantam Shein, Temu dan AliExpress (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/eu-slaps-3-fee-cheap-ecommerce-parcels-blow-shein-temu-aliexpress-2026-07-01/">Reuters, Juli 2026, https://www.straitstimes.com/business/eu-slaps-4-4-fee-on-cheap-ecommerce-parcels-in-blow-to-shein-temu-aliexpress">Straits Times); carrier DHL/FedEx/UPS memperingatkan risiko disrupsi perbatasan (https://theloadstar.com/dhl-fedex-ups-warn-eu-parcel-tax-risks-disruption-at-borders/">The Loadstar). Konteks: impor paket ecommerce murah EU melonjak 26% pada 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/european-union-imports-cheap-ecommerce-parcels-jump-26-2025-2026-01-26/">Reuters, Jan 2026). Analisis latar belakang suspensi de minimis EU: https://airfreight.news/articles/full/ai-suspension-of-de-minimis-in-eu-what-awaits-china-europe-e-commerce-trade">Airfreight News. - Efek: Temu mendorong lonjakan tajam pembelian online internasional dari Tiongkok pada 2024 (data pos/IPC) (https://www.ipc.be/news-portal/general-news/2025/01/09/13/49/sharp-increase-in-international-online-purchases-via-temu">IPC).

4. Temu & Shein

Temu (PDD Holdings) - GMV tahun-penuh 2025 diperkirakan US$90–95B (vs target US$100B) (https://sjqcj.com/new?p=42">sjqcj.com mengutip data pasar); GMV Q3 2025 dilaporkan 168B CNY (https://www.yilantop.com/news/76407">yilantop). - ~530 juta pengguna dalam ~3 tahun ("3 年狂揽 5.3 亿用户") (https://m.163.com/dy/article/KHJ4AG5N0511D0QS.html">163.com). - Pangsa pasar dilaporkan sejajar dengan Amazon secara global menurut laporan industri Januari 2026 ("Temu市场份额追平亚马逊") (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-22/doc-inhiecca2872516.shtml">Sina Finance, https://news.ifeng.com/c/8q6yeFE7hCg">Ifeng, http://www.ccpitzj.gov.cn/art/2026/1/23/art_1229557691_51330.html">CCPIT Zhejiang). - Hasil FY2025 induk PDD Holdings (dipublikasikan Mar 2026) — revenue naik tapi Q4 meleset dari perkiraan pada biaya lebih tinggi/permintaan lemah; narasi "era hyper-growth berakhir" (https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2026/03/25/3262038/0/en/PDD-Holdings-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2025-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Unaudited-Financial-Results.html">GlobeNewswire/PDD, https://cdn1.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/03/51454416/temu-hyper-growth-era-over-pdd-misses-estimates-due-to-higher-costs-weak-demand">Benzinga, https://www.amz123.com/t/nq5mgPfB">analisis AMZ123).

Shein - Valuasi IPO (HK) dipotong ~75% dari putaran ~US$100B sebelumnya, di tengah pertumbuhan lebih lambat dan scrutiny regulasi; valuasi dilaporkan "separuh" dari level ~US$100B (https://www.sohu.com/a/1064065418_122014422">Sohu/WhiteLine, https://fashionunited.com/news/business/shein-ipo-valuation-lowered-amid-slower-growth-and-regulatory-scrutiny/2026081774110">FashionUnited, https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/%E5%B8%8C%E9%9F%B3%E8%A1%9D%E5%88%BA%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AFipo-%E5%B0%8B%E6%B1%82%E6%9B%B4%E9%AB%98%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC-131521385.html">Yahoo Finance HK). - Disclosure finansial lengkap pertama (prospektus IPO): revenue lebih besar dari Adidas dan H&M gabungan; framing "千亿美元估值缩水过半" (valuasi menyusut >50%) (https://m.stnn.cc/detail/6a6716aaffd39b00b14e76da.html">stnn.cc, http://field.10jqka.com.cn/20260818/c679053621.shtml">10jqka prospectus review).

Tekanan kompetitif/regulasi - Kedua platform terkena penghentian de minimis AS (Mei 2025) dan biaya paket €3 EU + scrutiny DSA (sumber di Bagian 3); "pembelian Shein dan Temu kini jauh lebih mahal" (https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-charges-de-minimis-trump-tariff-2025-5">Business Insider). - Tindakan EU pertengahan-2026 vs Alibaba (diskusi denda $4,2B / €42亿) menunjukkan penindakan EU yang lebih luas terhadap platform Tiongkok (https://www.toutiao.com/article/7665362141318349364/">Toutiao/China commentary).

5. AI dalam Ecommerce

Adopsi AI generatif / agentik - Bain & Company (Nov 2025): AI agentik "bersiap mendisrupsi ritel," sementara ~50% konsumen masih hati-hati soal pembelian sepenuhnya otonom; commerce agentik diperkirakan membentuk ulang perjalanan search-to-purchase (https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252/agentic-ai-poised-to-disrupt-retail-even-with-50-of-consumers-cautious-of-fully-autonomous-purchasesbain--company/">siaran pers Bain, https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2025/11/255589/bain-co-report-details-how-agentic-ai-will-transform-e-commerce/">Crowdfund Insider, https://www.retailcustomerexperience.com/news/agentic-ai-may-disrupt-retail-yet-consumer-caution-in-play/">Retail Customer Experience). - Coveo Holiday Report: >70% konsumen akan menggunakan asisten GenAI untuk belanja liburan; 85% Gen Z & Millennial akan menggunakannya (https://ir.coveo.com/en/news-events/press-releases/detail/453/">Coveo IR, https://www.barchart.com/story/news/34746456/">Barchart). - "AI shopping wars" Nov 2025: Walmart, Amazon, Target, Google, Meta dan OpenAI semua meluncurkan tool AI shopping menjelang liburan. (https://www.axios.com/2025/11/27/ai-shopping-tools-christmas-gifts-chatgpt">Axios) - Amazon menggantikan feed sosialnya (Inspire) dengan chatbot AI Rufus sebagai taruhan discovery-nya (https://www.modernretail.co/technology/amazon-sunsets-its-tiktok-like-feature-inspire-in-favor-of-ai-powered-chatbot-rufus/">Modern Retail). - Artikel outlook 2026 tentang commerce agentik: https://www.deloitte.com/ca/en/Industries/consumer/perspectives/retail-reimagined-agentic-commerce.html">Deloitte Canada, https://www.kearney.com/service/digital-analytics/article/agentic-commerce-how-ai-changes-consumer-decisions-brands-and-retail">Kearney, https://www.braze.com/resources/articles/agentic-commerce">Braze guide, https://nshift.com/blog/ai-shopping-agentic-inversion-2026">nShift "agentic inversion", https://www.forbes.com/sites/aubriepagano/2026/01/13/2026-commerce-predictions-according-to-top-venture-capitalists/">Forbes VC 2026 commerce predictions, https://www.neudesic.com/blog/nrf-2026-retrospective-the-dawn-of-agentic-commerce-and-the-return-of-irrational-affinity/">NRF 2026 retrospective, https://mantelgroup.com.au/are-you-more-likely-to-trust-an-ai-expert-with-your-shopping/">Mantel Group. - Euromonitor: "From Search to Searchless Discovery" — bersaing untuk visibilitas dalam commerce AI-led (https://www-euromonitor-com.lib.ezproxy.hkust.edu.hk/article/from-search-to-searchless-discovery-competing-for-visibility-in-ai-led-commerce">Euromonitor). - Angka dolar belanja-AI retailer: tidak muncul dalam pencarian ini (di balik paywall); dicakup secara kualitatif di atas.

6. Pembayaran

Dompet digital - Dompet digital kini menyumbang lebih dari separuh semua transaksi online global (Worldpay Global Payments Report 2026, edisi ke-11) (https://www.worldpay.com/en-ZA/insights/articles/gpr-2026-trend-3">Worldpay trend article, https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/digital-wallets-account-for-over-half-of-global-online-transactions-crypto-payments-to-grow-fastest">KuCoin, https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605421533">Bitget). - Kripto diperkirakan menjadi metode pembayaran online yang tumbuh paling cepat (Worldpay GPR 2026, cakupan sama). - Datapoint Hong Kong: dompet digital menjadi metode pembayaran dominan teritori (cakupan Worldpay GPR 2026, https://finance.mingpao.com/fin/instantf/20260520/1779269037498/">Ming Pao).

BNPL - BNPL adalah pasar global ~US$560 miliar (The Paypers, "how BNPL became a USD 560 billion global market") (https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/split-in-four-how-bnpl-is-changing-the-way-consumers-pay">The Paypers). - Worldpay GPR 2026 mendedikasikan satu tren pada BNPL yang mendewasa ("BNPL grows up") (https://www.worldpay.com/en-ZA/insights/articles/gpr-2026-trend-4">Worldpay); ringkasan Tiongkok mencatat trajektori pertumbuhan 130x dalam ~10 tahun dari basis ~US$300B (https://www.sgpjbg.com/labelsyh/xianmaihoufufazhanqushi.html">ringkasan sgpjbg). - Perkiraan riset pasar (di balik paywall) untuk BNPL: https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6185935/buy-now-pay-later-market-outlook-market">Research and Markets, https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/buy-now-pay-later-market-106408">Fortune Business Insights, https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/buy-now-pay-later-market">GM Insights.

7. Mobile Commerce

Mobile kini menyumbang 73% belanja online (eCommerce Bridge) (https://www.ecommercebridge.com/mobile-commerce-takes-73-of-online-shopping/">eCommerce Bridge).
Lonjakan regional dalam mobile commerce pada 2025 (https://www.nextmsc.com/news/mobile-commerce-set-to-reshape-global-retail-landscape">NextMSC).
Statista memelihara dataset referensi: https://www.statista.com/topics/11883/mobile-commerce-worldwide/">Statista mobile commerce worldwide; lebih banyak rangkuman: https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/mobile-ecommerce-statistics/">Capital One Shopping, https://www.miquido.com/blog/mobile-commerce-strategies/">Miquido, https://www.thedroidsonroids.com/blog/mobile-commerce-trends-statistics-and-predictions">The Droidsonroids.

8. Tren Struktural Lainnya

Dominasi marketplace - Marketplace kini menghasilkan 83,4% revenue e-commerce global (ECDB) (https://ecdb.com/blog/marketplace-dominance-in-ecommerce/5194">ECDB). - Indeks 2025 Mirakl: GMV marketplace tumbuh 34%, mengungguli ecommerce keseluruhan ~4x (https://www.mirakl.com/blogs/marketplace/mirakl-powered-marketplaces-grow-34-outpace-industry-by-4x-2025-index-report/">Mirakl). - Marketplace = 61% dari ecommerce Eropa (https://trademagazin.hu/en/az-online-piacterek-adjak-az-europai-e-kereskedelem-61-at/">Trademagazin). - E-commerce AS mencapai US$1,2 triliun pada 2025, dengan Amazon + Shopify ≈ 50% darinya (Marketplace Pulse via liputan Tiongkok) (http://zxchuhai.com/202602/46019.html">zxchuhai, http://shang.shuaishou.com:8080/news/78228.html">shang.shuaishou).

D2C - Perkiraan riset pasar ada (di balik paywall): https://www.6wresearch.com/industry-report/global-direct-to-consumer-ecommerce-market">6Wresearch D2C market 2025-2031, https://scandiweb.com/blog/d2c-ecommerce-analysis-latest-insights-and-trends/">scandiweb D2C trends 2026, https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/zh-cn/reports/d2c-ecommerce-market-35564">Market Research Future (CN). Komentari gelombang D2C spesifik-India: https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/the-d2c-wave/4102578/">Financial Express.

Retail media network (RMN) - Retail media adalah kanal iklan yang tumbuh paling cepat selama lima tahun berturut-turut (The Ad Spend) (https://theadspend.com/blog/retail-media-fifth-straight-year-on-top">The Ad Spend). - Belanja iklan CTV retail media diperkirakan mencapai US$5B pada 2025 (https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/405101/retail-media-ctv-campaigns-expected-to-hit-5b-in.html">MediaPost). - Amazon mendominasi kategori ("nobody can get past Amazon") (https://invidis.com/news/2024/12/retail-media-nobody-can-get-past-amazon/">invidis); perkiraan pasar (di balik paywall): https://www.technavio.com/report/retail-media-networks-market-industry-analysis">Technavio 2025-2029, https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/retail-media-networks">Research and Markets.

Quick commerce - Quick commerce India: outlook GMV US$60–83B pada 2030 (https://www.multibagg.ai/market-pulse/articles/india-quick-commerce-2030-outlook-cmr4wf7d37txmpo0jhnalq47v">Multibagg); tekanan kompetitif pada Blinkit/Zepto/Instamart (https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/industry/indias-quick-commerce-bubble-just-got-a-6-month-countdown-can-blinkit-zepto-instamart-survive-the-siege-article-153266473">Times Now). - Laporan pasar quick commerce global (di balik paywall): https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6068727/quick-commerce-market-global-strategic">Research and Markets, https://www.demandsage.com/quick-commerce-statistics/">DemandSage stats 2026, https://www.snsinsider.com/reports/quick-commerce-market-10709/segmentation">SNS Insider.

Retur & keberlanjutan - Retur online mencapai 15,8% pada 2025, menelan biaya retailer ~US$850B (IndexBox) (https://www.indexbox.io/blog/online-returns-surge-to-158-in-2025-costing-retailers-850-billion/">IndexBox). - Retur/reverse logistics bergeser dari cost center ke keunggulan kompetitif (DHL) (https://group.dhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2026/reverse-logistics-goes-from-cost-center-to-competitive-edge-dhl-data-shows.html">DHL, https://www.posteurop.org/blog/reverse-logistics-goes-from-cost-center-to-competitive-edge-dhl-data-shows/">PostEurop); retur Black Friday awal 2025 +12% YoY (https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2025/12/22/early-black-friday-returns-up-12-over-last-year">Retail Brew).

Ecommerce grocery - Grocery online AS mencapai rekor US$12,5B pada September 2025 (https://retailgazette.com/blog/2025/10/online-grocery-sales-hit-record-12-5-billion-in-september-driven-by-surge-in-users/">Retail Gazette). - APAC mendorong jalur pertumbuhan triliun-dolar grocery online (https://retailasia.com/e-commerce/in-focus/apac-drives-online-grocerys-trillion-dollar-growth-path">Retail Asia). - Laporan pasar global (di balik paywall): https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5603176/online-grocery-global-market-insights-2025">Research and Markets online grocery 2025.

Konteks pasar keseluruhan - E-commerce akan melampaui 20% dari penjualan ritel dunia (eMarketer) (https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown">eMarketer); e-commerce global US$11,4T pada 2029 (Juniper, di atas).

9. Ekosistem Platform Kunci (rangkuman satu-baris tingkat-global)

Amazon: GMV global melampaui US$800B pada 2025 (Marketplace Pulse; liputan Tiongkok mengutip ~US$830B, dengan seller pihak-ketiga ≈70% dari GMV) (https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/amazon-gmv-surpassed-800-billion-in-2025">Marketplace Pulse, https://glosellers.com/61088.html">glosellers, https://m.amz123.com/t/z6OywZfX">AMZ123); pada 2025 Amazon melampaui Walmart sebagai perusahaan terbesar dunia berdasarkan revenue (https://www.theverge.com/tech/881280/amazon-is-now-the-worlds-biggest-company-by-revenue">The Verge, https://www.wwlp.com/news/national/amazon-surpasses-walmart-as-worlds-top-company-in-sales/">wwlp, https://www.supplychain247.com/article/amazon-overtakes-walmart-worlds-biggest-company-sales">Supply Chain 247).
Shopify: revenue +30% pada 2025, GMV juga tumbuh ~30% di Q4 2025; revenue Q4 US$3,7B; meluncurkan buyback US$2B; penjualan B2B melonjak (https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/02/12/shopify-revenue-b2b-sales-ai-2025/">Digital Commerce 360, https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/02/17/shopify-revenue-gmv-q4-2025/">DC360 Q4, https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/shopify-q4-2025-slides-revenue-hits-37b-as-ai-commerce-initiatives-accelerate-93CH-4453294">Investing.com, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shopify-posts-30-revenue-growth-113122526.html">Yahoo Finance).
Walmart: penjualan e-commerce ~US$150B (pertumbuhan digital mempercepat, liputan FY26) (https://retailgazette.com/blog/2026/04/walmart-e-commerce-sales-hit-150b-as-digital-growth-accelerates/">Retail Gazette); revenue kuartalan Q4 FY26 melewati US$190B (https://in.investing.com/news/company-news/walmart-q4-fy26-presentation-highlights-revenue-tops-190b-ecommerce-surges-93CH-5247625">Investing.com).
Alibaba (internasional): revenue International Digital Commerce Group Q1 FY2025 US$4,85B, +19% YoY (https://www.dny1.com/Main/ArticleDetails?id=882558879395745792">dny1, https://www.itiger.com/hant/news/2563604521">itiger); Q3 FY2025 +32% YoY, didorong AliExpress dan Trendyol (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/hk/2025-02-20/doc-inemctpe2299683.shtml">Sina).
eBay: FY2025 revenue US$11,1B, GMV US$79,6B; revenue Q4 2025 US$2,965B (https://www.100ec.cn/detail--6657099.html">100ec.cn, https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/ebay-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results-2026-02-18#1">Nasdaq/EBay press release, https://www.yilantop.com/news/82209">yilantop); mengintegrasikan live shopping ke pengalaman inti (https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/ebay-inc-nasdaqebay-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript-1699663/">Insider Monkey transcript).
PDD Holdings / Temu: GMV Temu 2025 diperkirakan US$90–95B; hasil FY2025 PDD dipublikasikan Mar 2026 (detail di Bagian 4) (https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2026/03/25/3262038/0/en/PDD-Holdings-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2025-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Unaudited-Financial-Results.html">GlobeNewswire, https://sjqcj.com/new?p=42">sjqcj).
Mercado Libre: penjualan rekor 2025; revenue Q4 +45% YoY (Amerika Latin) (https://news.mercadolibre.com/en/financial-results-fourth-quarter-2025">Mercado Libre newsroom, https://mexicobusiness.news/ecommerce/news/mercado-libre-delivers-record-2025-sales-45-4q25-growth">Mexico Business News, https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/mercado-libre-caps-stellar-2025-performance-45-yoy-revenue-growth-q4-strategic">Nasdaq).
Sea / Shopee: Shopee GMV 2025 US$127,4B, +26,8% YoY; induk Sea laba bersih FY2025 naik menjadi US$1,6B, revenue +36% (http://ec100.cn/detail--6657234.html">ec100.cn, https://www.yilantop.com/news/82743">yilantop, https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sea-q4-earnings-72-9-us410-9-million-targets-25-gmv-growth-shopee">Business Times); Sea memandu ~25% pertumbuhan GMV Shopee untuk 2026.
Coupang: FY2025 revenue US$34,5B (penjualan tahunan rekor; profit Q4 turun ~97% setelah insiden data) (https://imgs-b2b.100ec.cn/detail--6657128.html">100ec.cn, https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/02/27/Coupang-posts-record-sales-Q4-profit-tumbles-97/3151772239820/">UPI, https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=264081">BusinessKorea, https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/coupang-q4-2025-slides-revenue-grows-11-as-data-incident-weighs-93CH-4530266">Investing.com).
Konteks peringkat: leader GMV global 2025 adalah Amazon, PDD (Temu), ByteDance (TikTok Shop) (https://glosellers.com/62062.html">glosellers); ECDB meranking perusahaan ecommerce teratas berdasarkan GMV (Alibaba, PDD, Amazon) (https://ecdb.com/blog/the-top-companies-in-e-commerce-worldwide/5223">ECDB, https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/6a3e3abfe7b39/amazon-records-largest-estimated-global-e-commerce-gmv-in-2025">Databoks).

10. Konflik & Peringatan (ditandai)

GMV TikTok Shop 2025: US$64,3B (+94%, data gaya AMZ123/Tabcut) vs "mendekati US$100B" (media finansial Tiongkok, Jan 2026). Angka ~$100B mungkin mencakup definisi gross-merchandise-value termasuk pasar non-AS, atau bersifat promosional; anggap US$64B sebagai angka yang lebih konservatif dan spesifik-datapoint.
Skala live-commerce Tiongkok: "52 trillion CNY" BXTData tidak kredibel seperti dinyatakan (≈US$7T); anchor yang dapat diandalkan adalah ~US$900B NielsenIQ (2026). Gunakan ~US$900B / 5–6T CNY.
Ukuran pasar social commerce: estimasi vendor sangat berbeda karena cakupan (GMV platform vs penjualan ad-adjacent vs penjualan "social-driven"). Tidak ada satu angka global otoritatif; framing "$1,2T" adalah kutipan sekunder.
GMV Amazon 2025: Marketplace Pulse menyatakan ">$800B"; liputan Tiongkok menyatakan ~US$830B dan ~70% pihak ketiga. Variasi definisi kecil (GMV ritel vs marketplace).
Pangsa ritel eMarketer: ">20% dari penjualan ritel dunia" — tahun 2025-2026; pertumbuhan lebih lambat dibanding boom 2021-2022.
BNPL: US$560B (The Paypers) vs cakupan tren Worldpay GPR 2026 (yang menekankan trajektori pertumbuhan daripada satu level tunggal); perkiraan vendor sangat bervariasi — anggap US$560B sebagai anchor terbaru.
E-commerce Walmart: "~$150B" berasal dari liputan April 2026 atas performa FY26/FY27; pertumbuhan e-commerce Walmart sendiri yang dilaporkan ~20%+ per kuartal tapi definisi dolar (global vs AS) bervariasi.
Beberapa angka riset pasar (Grand View, Mordor, Straits, Technavio) di balik paywall; saya hanya mengutip keberadaan dan URL-nya, bukan angka yang tidak dapat diverifikasi.