Research Findings: The Worldwide Ecommerce Landscape (Global Ecommerce Market Overview)

Prepared for: Bilingual (Chinese/English) research report, business strategy team Method: Web research (English-language searches) — all figures below come from sources located via web search; figures marked as forecasts note their vintage/date. No numbers were invented. Data vintage emphasis: 2024–2025 latest full-year data; 2026+ are forecasts. Scope note: "Retail ecommerce" figures (eMarketer, Statista) count online retail sales of goods (and, in some vintages, services); UNCTAD's "e-commerce sales" figures are much larger because they include B2B transactions. These are different metrics — see Section 8 for conflicts.

1. Global Retail Ecommerce Sales — Latest Full-Year (2024) and 2025 Estimate

1.1 eMarketer (primary reference series, retail ecommerce sales worldwide)

• eMarketer (forecast published Feb 2025; article May 22, 2025): "Retail ecommerce sales worldwide will reach $6.419 trillion in 2025, growing 6.8% YoY — the slowest pace since 2022. Ecommerce will represent 20.5% of total global retail sales in 2025, up from 19.9% in 2024."
• eMarketer (forecast Mar 19, 2024): worldwide retail ecommerce sales to total $6.334 trillion in 2024, making up 20.1% of total retail sales; China No.1 at $3.235 trillion, US No.2 at $1.251 trillion, UK No.3 at $220.55 billion; Latin America fastest growth (15.8% in 2024), Western Europe slowest (6.4%).
• Backlinko (updated Dec 23, 2025, compiling eMarketer): full 2022–2028 series as in the table above.

Sources: eMarketer "Worldwide ecommerce sales to break $6 trillion, make up a fifth of total retail sales" (Mar 19, 2024) — https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-ecommerce-sales-break-6-trillion ; eMarketer "Ecommerce to account for more than 20% of worldwide retail sales despite slowdown" (May 22, 2025) — https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown ; Backlinko "36 Up-To-Date Ecommerce Statistics for 2026" (Dec 23, 2025) — https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats

1.2 Statista (market-forecast metric)

• Global ecommerce revenue ≈ $6.3 trillion in 2025, +11.2% vs 2024 (Statista data, as compiled by Tenten.co, Mar 17, 2026). Statista's market-forecast scope differs from eMarketer's broad retail-ecommerce scope.
• Statista's worldwide ecommerce market forecast: 6.84% CAGR 2026–2030 (BestForEcommerce compilation, updated May 31, 2026).

Sources: Tenten.co "State of Ecommerce 2026" (Mar 17, 2026) — https://tenten.co/shopify/state-of-ecommerce-2026/ ; BestForEcommerce "E-commerce CAGR Forecasts" — https://bestforecommerce.com/ecommerce-statistics/market-size-growth/ecommerce-cagr-forecasts/ ; Statista "eCommerce - Worldwide" outlook — https://www.statista.com/outlook/emo/ecommerce/worldwide

1.3 Other estimates (for triangulation)

• Edgar, Dunn & Company (via The Paypers, Feb 9, 2026): ecommerce valued at ~USD 6.5 trillion, growing at twice the pace of traditional commerce, capturing nearly 25% of all global retail sales.
• HSG Capital (Nov 15, 2025): online retail sales to grow from $6.4 trillion (2025) to $7.8 trillion (2027).
• eCommerceDB (ECDB): country "market revenue" figures are materially lower than eMarketer's (see Section 4); ECDB's sample ranking shows Greater China US$2,044,534m, US US$1,083,299m, UK US$177,001m for 2025.

Sources: The Paypers "The global ecommerce landscape: where are we today?" (Feb 9, 2026) — https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/the-global-ecommerce-landscape-where-are-we-today ; HSG Capital "Where the World Shops Online: Cross-Border E-Commerce Trends in 2025" (Nov 15, 2025) — https://www.hsgcap.com/article/cross-border-ecommerce-trends-2025/ ; ECDB "Top E-Commerce Countries by Market Size" — https://ecdb.com/resources/sample-data/ranking/countries

2. Forecasts — 2026/2027/2028 (and beyond) + CAGR

• eMarketer: market to "continue to grow through the end of our forecast in 2028"; by 2028 more than half of the worldwide population ages 14+ will be ecommerce shoppers.
• Forrester (via yStats, Mar 2026): global online retail sales to rise from over USD 4 trillion (2023) to over USD 6 trillion (2028), CAGR ≈ 9%; 76% of global retail sales still offline by 2028.
• Morgan Stanley: 2022 report forecast ecommerce rising from $3.3 trillion (2022) to $5.4 trillion (2026), reaching 27% of retail sales by 2026 (Brian Nowak, analyst). In 2026 Morgan Stanley's Global Insight report "Global eCommerce: The Agentic Era — Catalyzing Growth and Innovation" (July 19, 2026, 118 pp.) raised the global ecommerce TAM to ~US$7 trillion, with agentic-commerce incremental growth of ~6% (per Chinese-language summary of the report).
• ECDB (via Chinese press, Jul 2026): global ecommerce retail total to break $8 trillion by 2027, with online share of retail >20%.

Sources: Backlinko — https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats ; Shopify "Global Ecommerce Sales Growth Report (2026)" (Sep 29, 2025) — https://www.shopify.com/blog/global-ecommerce-sales ; yStats "Global E-Commerce in 2025: Trends, Growth, and the Digital Future" (Mar 2026) — https://www.ystats.com/post/global-e-commerce-in-2025-trends-growth-and-the-digital-future ; Morgan Stanley "The Surprising Case for Stronger E-commerce Growth" (2022) — https://prod-mssip.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-ecommerce-growth-forecast-2022 ; Morgan Stanley podcast summary (2026 report, 7万亿 TAM) — https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/6a5e2d8ea3fec224d5a0941b ; 出海网 "全球TOP20电商市场出炉！中美英霸占前三！" (Jul 30, 2026) — https://www.chwang.com/ask/208264155296

3. Ecommerce as % of Total Global Retail Sales

• eMarketer: 2025 = 20.5% of total global retail sales; projected 22.5% by 2028 (also cited by Shopify, HSG Capital, Capital One Shopping).
• Edgar, Dunn & Co.: ecommerce captures nearly 25% of all global retail sales and is forecast to approach 40% in more developed markets by 2030.
• Morgan Stanley: rose from 15% of retail (2019) → 21% (2021) → ~22% (2022); forecast 27% by 2026.
• Forrester: 76% of retail still offline by 2028 (i.e., ~24% online).
• Statista share trajectory (via eMarketer-based compilations): 18.5% → 22.5% over 2022–2028.

Sources: eMarketer May-2025 — https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown ; Backlinko — https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats ; Shopify UK Enterprise — https://www.shopify.com/uk/enterprise/blog/global-ecommerce-statistics ; The Paypers/EDC — https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/the-global-ecommerce-landscape-where-are-we-today ; Morgan Stanley — https://prod-mssip.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-ecommerce-growth-forecast-2022 ; yStats (Forrester) — https://www.ystats.com/post/global-e-commerce-in-2025-trends-growth-and-the-digital-future

4. Top 10 Countries by Ecommerce Sales

4.1 eMarketer (2024, retail ecommerce sales)

1. China — $3.235 trillion
2. United States — $1.251 trillion
3. United Kingdom — $220.55 billion (eMarketer Mar-2024 forecast; note China > half of worldwide ecommerce sales in 2024 per eMarketer.)

4.2 eCommerceDB (ECDB) 2025 country ranking (as reported in press; Greater China values vary by source vintage)

⚠️ Data-quality flag: Chinese press articles reporting ECDB 2025 data are internally inconsistent — one set reports China US$3,020 billion (出海网) while another set reports US$302 billion (AMZ123/other), i.e., a 10x decimal discrepancy in the same ECDB dataset. ECDB's own public sample page currently shows Greater China US$2,044,534m, US US$1,083,299m, UK US$177,001m for 2025. Use ECDB's own site figure ($2.04T China / $1.08T US / $177B UK) as the most defensible ECDB number, and treat press-reported values with caution. Also note eMarketer's China figure ($3.235T, 2024) is ~60% higher than ECDB's — scope differences (see Section 8).

4.3 Other country-level data points

• Statista-based (Tenten.co, 2025): China $2.8T (44% of global), US $1.09T, India $420B (3rd-largest, +38% YoY), UK $196B.
• Airwallex–Statista (2024): China $1.47 trillion, US $1.2 trillion (as cited by HSG Capital).
• US (Chain Store Age / US Census): US retail ecommerce ≈ $1.19 trillion in 2024 (16.13% of US retail); US ecommerce market "nears $1.4T" in 2025 reports.
• Shopify: China + US + Western Europe combined contributed > $5.17 trillion in 2025; 7 countries exceeded $100 billion in ecommerce sales in 2025.

Sources: eMarketer Mar-2024 — https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-ecommerce-sales-break-6-trillion ; ECDB country ranking — https://ecdb.com/resources/sample-data/ranking/countries ; 出海网 top-20 (2025 ECDB, $3.02T China) — https://www.chwang.com/ask/208264155296 ; AMZ123 top-20 (2025 ECDB, $302B China — decimal-error version) — https://www.amz123.com/t/prgjQ5CW ; Tenten.co — https://tenten.co/shopify/state-of-ecommerce-2026/ ; HSG Capital — https://www.hsgcap.com/article/cross-border-ecommerce-trends-2025/ ; Shopify — https://www.shopify.com/blog/global-ecommerce-sales ; Chain Store Age "U.S. e-commerce market nears $1.4T" — https://chainstoreage.com/us-e-commerce-market-nears-14t-trails-one-country ; Backlinko (US Census data) — https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats

5. Global Digital Buyers & Online Shopper Penetration

• 2025: ~2.77 billion online shoppers worldwide (nearly 1 in 3 people globally are digital buyers); up from 2.37 billion in 2020 (+16.9%; ~80M new buyers/year on average; growth slowing — 110M added 2020→2021 vs only 60M added 2024→2025).
• Series: 2020: 2.37B → 2021: 2.48B → 2022: 2.56B → 2023: 2.64B → 2024: 2.71B → 2025: 2.77B (Statista data via SOAX).
• US: ~288 million online shoppers (2025); projected 333.5 million by 2029.
• Shopify: "In 2025, more than three billion people will make a purchase online" (broader definition — any online purchase, not just retail); in 2024, more than 75% of internet users shopped online; by 2028, 50% of the global population aged 14+ will be online shoppers (matches eMarketer).
• UNCTAD: 2.3 billion people shopped online in 2021, a 68% increase from 2017.
• Penetration note (UNCTAD): in many developing countries, fewer than 10% of internet users make online purchases (e.g., Bangladesh) — big digital-divide gap.

Sources: SOAX "How many people shop online?" (Jul 21, 2025) — https://soax.com/research/how-many-people-shop-online ; Podbase (2026) — https://www.podbase.com/blogs/how-many-people-shop-online ; Shopify — https://www.shopify.com/blog/global-ecommerce-sales ; eMarketer May-2025 — https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown ; UNCTAD "Making e-commerce and the digital economy work for all" — https://unctad.org/news/making-e-commerce-and-digital-economy-work-all ; Financial Express Bangladesh (UNCTAD) — https://today.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/trade-market/less-than-10pc-internet-users-make-online-purchases-in-bangladesh-1720633371

6. Category / Channel Breakdown

6.1 Mobile commerce (m-commerce)

• 2025: mobile accounts for 59% of total retail ecommerce = $2.51 trillion (SOAX/Statista-based).
• Series (revenue / share of ecommerce): 2020: $1.1T / 48% → 2022: $1.48T / 52% → 2024: $2.07T / 57% → 2025: $2.51T / 59% → 2026F: $2.74T / 60% → 2027F: $3.02T / 62% → 2028F: $3.35T / 63%.
• M-commerce first crossed $1 trillion in 2020; grew from $500B (2017) to a projected $3.35T (2028), >6x over 2017–2028.
• Edgar, Dunn & Co.: mobile shopping "now accounts for the majority of ecommerce sales."

6.2 Payment mix (ecommerce transactions)

• 53% of ecommerce transactions worldwide are made with a digital/mobile wallet; credit cards 20%; debit cards 12% (Capital One Shopping Research, Feb 2026).
• EDC: digital wallets + embedded finance driving growth; BNPL notable but contracting in the US (Affirm 2026 forecast: 15% contraction in US BNPL volume).

6.3 Cross-border ecommerce

• Juniper Research (infographic, Aug 2023): cross-border ecommerce transactions: 2023: $1.63T → 2024: $1.92T → 2025: $2.25T → 2026: $2.58T → 2027: $2.95T → 2028: $3.37T (+107% vs 2023).
• Capital One Shopping Research (Feb 17, 2026; consumer cross-border market — narrower definition): $1.14T (2024) → $1.21T (2025) → $1.84T (2030) (8.71% CAGR); cross-border ≈ 18.8–20% of all global online sales; grows 28.3% faster than global ecommerce through 2030; physical products = 97% of cross-border value; 59% of global shoppers buy from retailers outside their home country; 83% of US consumers willing to buy from overseas.
• UNCTAD: digitally ordered exports (international ecommerce) from 43 tracked economies ≈ $2.5 trillion in 2021, ≈ 13% of total exports of goods and services (uncertain estimate).
• China cross-border: Chinese press reports China's cross-border ecommerce import/export surpassed ~$1 trillion-scale (18.6%–19% YoY growth in 2024H1 per one securities-industry compilation); treat as secondary.

6.4 Platform share (concentration)

• ECDB: 8 of the top 10 global ecommerce platforms are Asian; only Amazon and Walmart are Western. Alibaba's GMV is 88.28% China-dependent; Amazon's top market (US) is 50.89% of its GMV.

Sources: SOAX "How big is mobile in ecommerce?" (Jun 2, 2025) — https://www.soax.com/research/mobile-ecommerce-stats ; The Paypers/EDC — https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/the-global-ecommerce-landscape-where-are-we-today ; Capital One Shopping "Cross-Border Online Shopping Statistics" (Feb 17, 2026) — https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/cross-border-online-shopping-statistics ; Juniper Research cross-border infographic (Aug 2023) — https://www.juniperresearch.com/resources/infographics/crossborder-ecommerce-market-statistic-infographic/ ; UNCTAD technical note "Business e-commerce sales and the role of online platforms" — https://unctad.org/publication/business-e-commerce-sales-and-role-online-platforms ; ECDB top-10 platforms — https://ecdb.com/blog/top-10-global-platform-ranking/5213

7. Top Global Ecommerce Companies / Retailers (GMV / Revenue Rankings)

7.1 ECDB — Top 10 ecommerce COMPANIES by 2025 GMV (published Jul 10, 2026)

7.2 ECDB — Top ecommerce PLATFORMS by 2025 GMV (published Jun 15, 2026; platform-level methodology)

1. Amazon — US$846.1 billion (world's largest single ecommerce platform)
2. Pinduoduo — US$780.5 billion
3. Douyin — US$656.4 billion
4. Tmall + Taobao (Alibaba) — combined > US$1 trillion (largest ecommerce company by transaction value)
5. 8 of the top 10 platforms are Asian (only Amazon and Walmart are Western). Temu (PDD) expanding across North America/Europe; TikTok Shop powering ByteDance's international growth; Shopee (SEA + LatAm) and AliExpress as key cross-border gateways.

⚠️ Methodology note: the "company" ranking (Alibaba #1 at $1.26T) and the "platform" ranking (Amazon #1 at $846.1B) use different consolidation rules — do not mix the two lists in the same chart without explanation. ECDB GMV figures are estimates.

Sources: ECDB "The Top Companies in E-Commerce Worldwide: Alibaba, PDD Holdings, Amazon" (Jul 10, 2026) — https://ecdb.com/blog/the-top-companies-in-e-commerce-worldwide/5223 ; ECDB "Amazon Still Leads, But Asia Owns the Trend" (Jun 15, 2026) — https://ecdb.com/blog/top-10-global-platform-ranking/5213 ; EcommerceBridge "Eight Of The World's Biggest E-commerce Platforms Are Now Asian" (Jun 22, 2026) — https://www.ecommercebridge.com/eight-of-the-worlds-biggest-ecommerce-platforms-are-now-asian/ ; Databoks/Katadata (Amazon GMV 2025, ECDB data) — https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/6a3e3abfe7b39/amazon-records-largest-estimated-global-e-commerce-gmv-in-2025

8. Conflicting Numbers Across Sources (flag for the report)

1. 2025 global value: eMarketer $6.42T (+6.8%) vs Statista $6.3T (+11.2%) vs Edgar Dunn & Co. ~$6.5T vs ECDB-implied (~$4–5T sum of country revenues). The $6.4–6.5T range is safe; growth rate varies 6.8%–11.2% by methodology.
2. China's size: eMarketer $3.235T (2024) vs ECDB $2.04T (2025, official site) or $3.02T (2025, press) vs Airwallex–Statista $1.47T (2024) vs Tenten/Statista $2.8T (2025) vs Capital One "China = 51.1% of world ecommerce". Differences = goods-only vs goods+services; marketplace vs total online retail; FX/rounding. Do not mix sources for China without a scope footnote.
3. Chinese press decimal errors: some ECDB-based articles print China as "$302 billion" (10x too low) — an obvious transcription error; treat such articles as unreliable and prefer ECDB's own site or eMarketer.
4. 2024 ecommerce share of retail: 20.1% (Mar-2024 eMarketer forecast) vs 19.9% (revised Feb-2025 vintage). Use 19.9–20.1% with a note.
5. 2027 forecast: Backlinko/eMarketer $7.38T (2027) vs HSG Capital "$7.8 trillion by 2027" (likely a rounding/quote of the 2028 value).
6. Cross-border size: Juniper $2.25T (2025) (broad transactions) vs Capital One $1.21T (2025) (consumer B2C only). Share of total ecommerce ≈ 19–35% depending on definition.
7. Digital buyers: 2.77 billion (Statista/SOXA, "digital buyers") vs ">3 billion" (Shopify, "make a purchase online") — definitional difference (retail digital buyers vs any online purchase).
8. Morgan Stanley: 2022 forecast ($5.4T by 2026, 27% of retail) is now superseded; the 2026 report raises TAM to ~$7T. Cite both with dates.
9. Amazon GMV: ECDB company-level $851.9B vs platform-level $846.1B (2025) — small consolidation differences; also Databoks preview text contains a typo ("US$84.61 billion").
10. UNCTAD numbers are NOT comparable to eMarketer/Statista: UNCTAD's ~$25T (2021) / ~$27T (2022) figures cover business e-commerce sales (incl. B2B) across 43 economies (~3/4 of world GDP), not B2C retail.

9. Key Authoritative Sources (master list)

eMarketer (Insider Intelligence) - https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-ecommerce-sales-break-6-trillion (Mar 19, 2024) - https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown (May 22, 2025) - https://www.emarketer.com/topics/category/ecommerce/20

Statista - https://www.statista.com/outlook/emo/ecommerce/worldwide (eCommerce Market Forecast) - https://www.statista.com/study/10653/e-commerce-worldwide-statista-dossier/ - https://www.statista.com/topics/871/online-shopping/ - https://www.statista.com/topics/11883/mobile-commerce-worldwide/

UNCTAD / UN Trade & Development - https://unctad.org/publication/business-e-commerce-sales-and-role-online-platforms (Technical note, No.1) - https://unctad.org/news/making-e-commerce-and-digital-economy-work-all

eCommerceDB (ECDB) - https://ecdb.com/resources/sample-data/ranking/countries - https://ecdb.com/blog/the-top-companies-in-e-commerce-worldwide/5223 - https://ecdb.com/blog/top-10-global-platform-ranking/5213

Morgan Stanley - https://prod-mssip.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-ecommerce-growth-forecast-2022 (2022 forecast) - https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/agentic-commerce-ai-next-catalyst-andrew-ruben-nathan-feather (agentic-commerce TAM; 2026 report summarized at https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/6a5e2d8ea3fec224d5a0941b)

Forrester (cited via yStats) - https://www.ystats.com/post/global-e-commerce-in-2025-trends-growth-and-the-digital-future

Juniper Research (cross-border) - https://www.juniperresearch.com/resources/infographics/crossborder-ecommerce-market-statistic-infographic/

Edgar, Dunn & Company (via The Paypers) - https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/the-global-ecommerce-landscape-where-are-we-today

Compilations / secondary aggregators (use with attribution to primary) - Backlinko: https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats - Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/blog/global-ecommerce-sales and https://www.shopify.com/uk/enterprise/blog/global-ecommerce-statistics - SOAX: https://soax.com/research/how-many-people-shop-online ; https://soax.com/research/mobile-ecommerce-stats - Capital One Shopping Research: https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/cross-border-online-shopping-statistics ; https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/online-shopping-growth-statistics/ - Tenten.co (Statista compilation): https://tenten.co/shopify/state-of-ecommerce-2026/ - BestForEcommerce (CAGR compilation): https://bestforecommerce.com/ecommerce-statistics/market-size-growth/ecommerce-cagr-forecasts/ - HSG Capital: https://www.hsgcap.com/article/cross-border-ecommerce-trends-2025/ - eCommerceBridge: https://www.ecommercebridge.com/eight-of-the-worlds-biggest-ecommerce-platforms-are-now-asian/ - ECDB data via Chinese press: https://www.chwang.com/ask/208264155296 ; https://www.amz123.com/t/prgjQ5CW

Research cut-off: current session. Figures marked "F" are forecasts. All USD values are nominal. When quoting in the final bilingual report, cite the primary source (eMarketer/Statista/UNCTAD/ECDB) for each figure and add a scope footnote wherever sources differ.